Localised Risk, Late-Cycle Volatility

A comparison of the April 2026 Bunker Quality Trends report and the FOBAS Fuel Insight: Fuel Quality Report H2 2025 highlights a shared conclusion: risk is not evenly distributed, and operational exposure is shaped more by location, supply chain behaviour and timing than by global averages. 

Both reports indicate that most fuels continue to meet ISO 8217 specifications. However, this overall compliance masks a more uneven pattern. The Integr8 dataset describes a “broadly stable” global picture with risk concentrated in localised spikes, while FOBAS identifies a rise in both the frequency and severity of off-specification events in the second half of 2025, particularly towards year-end.

Taken together, the findings suggest that bunker quality is not deteriorating structurally, but is becoming more variable and less predictable in specific locations.

Residual fuels: stability at macro level, pressure at the margins
Across residual grades, the two reports align on the key drivers of quality risk. Sulphur, total sediment potential (TSP), aluminium plus silicon (cat fines), and water content remain the dominant parameters behind off-specification results.

The FOBAS report indicates that around 15% of residual fuels exceeded ISO 8217:2010 limits in H2 2025, with a concentration of more severe outliers emerging late in the year. These included high sulphur cases in Rotterdam and Algeciras, as well as extreme sediment results exceeding 1.0% m/m in isolated instances.

By contrast, the Integr8 data presents a more moderate picture. HSFO quality improved slightly over the same period, with only 2.1% of samples testing beyond 95% confidence limits, down from 2.6% previously.

This apparent divergence reflects differences in framing rather than contradiction. The Integr8 report focuses on statistical distribution across a large dataset, while FOBAS places greater emphasis on operational incidents and extreme cases. The combined view points to a market where most fuel remains usable, but where the consequences of outliers are becoming more significant.

A consistent theme across both reports is the importance of fuel stability. Elevated TSP values, often linked to asphaltene instability, are highlighted as a persistent issue. FOBAS notes repeated high sediment cases in ARA ports and elsewhere, while Integr8 identifies rising TSP and cat fine pressures in locations such as the US Gulf Coast.

This reflects broader changes in blending practices and feedstock variability, particularly as refiners optimise margins and reduce blend giveaway.

VLSFO: increasing variability and compliance pressure
Very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) continues to present a more complex quality profile. Integr8 data shows that 2.7% of VLSFO samples tested beyond 95% confidence limits, an increase of 0.6% compared to the previous period.

Sulphur compliance remains a key area of focus. The April 2026 report highlights a widening gap between regions, with the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp (ARA) complex showing significantly higher rates of borderline and non-compliant sulphur results compared with Singapore.

FOBAS observations support this trend, noting repeated high sulphur outliers across major hubs including Rotterdam, Port Said and Hong Kong. These cases are typically linked to blend inconsistency or misclassification within supply chains.

At the same time, both reports emphasise that critical parameters such as cat fines and sediment, while still important, remain relatively contained in absolute terms. The implication is that VLSFO risk is increasingly linked to compliance margins and operational variability rather than widespread contamination.

Regional concentration of issues is another shared finding. Integr8 identifies specific pressure points such as Greater Houston, where TSP and aluminium plus silicon levels have trended upwards over time.

FOBAS similarly highlights clusters of elevated sediment and cleanliness issues in ARA and Asia, reinforcing the view that port-level dynamics are becoming more important than global averages.

Distillates: generally stable, but safety risks persist
Distillate fuels continue to show a higher level of overall quality control compared with residual grades. FOBAS reports that Marine Gas Oil (MGO) remains largely on-spec, with relatively low levels of non-compliance.

However, both reports highlight flash point as a persistent and operationally significant risk. As a SOLAS-regulated parameter with a hard minimum of 60°C, even marginal deviations can render fuel unusable.